Friday, May 20, 2011

GDX chart Request

GDX is a gold miner ETF, not gold itself. Lately the miners have been lagging the physical.

We'll take a look at the long term and the opportunity.

 Long term this price pattern is most similar to a double top, but it's certainly not textbook, The point is a run at a new high failed so we have what is likely a top in GDX.

 When  compared to GLD, it's a bit hard to see the underperformance except very recently, but GLD in red throughout this timeframe has made a series of higher highs while GDX has been rangebound. I've noticed the miners were lacking the physical for quite some time.

 This is a simple custom indicator I created to show you cumulative volume (for TC users, use the custom indicator feature and add this code: v+v1) You'll notice that volume acts appropriately for a top, with the price rallies seeing diminishing volume and the declines seeing heavier volume, this is textbook top in volume analysis.

 However on a shorter term 15 min 3C chart, there appears to be a trading range and there's a positive divergence, this is not unusual being GDX is at support so there may be a short term swing trade of a week or two here. You have to decide if it's worth it. the bigger picture is not bullish.

Using the Trend Chanel to identify a likely target, we get somewhere around $59- $60. I don't see much more upside at this point. There may be individual miners that offer a better return for a short term move.

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