Friday, May 20, 2011

NETL Trade Idea

 NETL is a Broadening top, every H&S top first starts out as a Broadening top, but one similarity they don't share is the need for volume confirmation. Often broadening tops have unpredictable and random volume and that's fine.  This one in NETL has already broken support and has a small breakaway gap on very large volume.

 3C daily has looked bad as well as RSI being negatively divergent.

 Here's a 1 min chart with a recent positive divergence and a try for a bounce here.

In the dogma of technical analysis, a breakaway gap that breaks below support on large volume SHOULD NOT be filled. Which means in the real world, Wall Street will likely try to fill it.  I have a trend Channel stop setting that has worked for NETL in the past well, it's a bit high, but it will move down pretty quick over the next week. While a position could be started in the area, you may want to leave some room for adding at higher prices slightly above the gap or in the area of $38.  $32 is the initial target, but in that area it will set up the right side of a larger top, I'd call this a primer top. With a break of the larger top, you could be looking at something more like $16 or at least sub $20's and with your ability to add short position profits to average up the size of the trade, it gives you the ability to pyramid the position and compound your gains.

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