Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Finally?

The 1 min negative divergence has been persistent through the day and through multiple tickers. Is it finally taking hold? It appears to be.

 SPY 1 mn chart, the break of the diagonal trendline didn't last long before we saw new highs. At those new highs note the small H&S top.

 Adding a custom indicator tht cumulates volume, we can see this mini H&S top is valid as volume declines on rallies (yellow arrows) and increases on declines-(red arrows). The break from the H&S top is complete. It doesn't have much in the way of an imp;id target, we've already passed that.

Here's today's NYSE Tick chart which has been trending laterally all day until 2:30 or so when it started trending down, showing more NYSE stocks were starting to tick down.

As far as where this is going, I don't see the point in a divergence that long that has not effected the 5 min chart. I think a late day sell-off could be accomplished with a much shorter negative divergence so I'm going to assume that this weakness carries over in to tomorrow's open, perhaps with a gap down.

Ultimately nothing rises straight up or falls straight down, I'm not worried about a gap down in the a.m. as the longer charts have managed to stay positive and even build on it. I do think if we do get such a gap down in the a.m. it will likely represent an excellent area to go long the market as long a we have a positive divergence confirming the gap to be a head fake.

I would guess we'll see continued sell-side pressure into the close. The psychology of the close will be important to get traders to commit to a downside gap and make the effort worthwhile.

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