TBT Chart Request

A member i looking at TBT as a potential short sale candidate setting up, it's not there yet and the member realizes this, it's just one on the shopping list as the prevailing trend is bearish and any strength (although we can and should play the bounce) should be viewed as an opportunity to set up low risk/ high probability short positions.

 TBT is a leveraged short ETF on the 20+ year treasury, it makes sense that treasuries are seeing a flight right now as money is moving into equities. However, TBT represents a significant top, which would mean treasuries are putting in a significant bottom. Today TBT has done fairly well.

 This daily chart shows TBT's daily cycle from accumulation, to mark-up, to distribution to decline-all 4 stages. The white line within the white box (the accumulation area) represents an estimation of the average accumulated position. TBT moves higher and 3C confirms the mark up phase until November when distribution starts. Distribution never occurs into falling prces, always into demand. Wall Street wants to sell into higher prices, not lower. Finally TBT tops around February and begins stage 4 decline which is where we are now. The bounce is a mere counter trend rally and should be used to set up a long position in bonds.

 The hourly chart looks very much like the broader market which makes sense as people flea the safety of bonds and enter risk assets on a market bounce.

 The 10 min chart is currently in confirmation of the trend.

 The 1 min chart looks much like the rest of the market, suggesting some sort of transitory weakness.

On the daily chart, TBT will probably head toward the $35 level, a break above $35 would be even better as far as setting up a low risk trade, which when the time comes would be in UBT.