Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Retracement-Stocks Almost Always fall faster then they rise

Here's a quick look at the SPY retracement of the opening to the intraday high (not including the gap)

Currently the SPY has retraced nearly 62% of the intraday trade higher-not including the gap. So it took the SPY 5 1/2 hours to build that intraday trade and only 1 hour to retrace 62% of the rise. This isn't meant to be an indication of action moving forward, it's just to illustrate the following: Two things drive the market-you might say supply and demand, but actually as this chart shows you, the two things that drive the market are FEAR and GREED and judging by the retrace, which emotion do you think is more powerful?

Fear indeed.

It's important to understand this concept for chart reading. When we view a chart, we usually look at signals, moving averages, price patterns, support, resistance, but a price chart is much more powerful if you can translate what you are seeing into emotion and if you can place yourself in the emotional moment of the chart you are viewing. With  little understanding of human nature, charts (especially long term charts-devoid of the daily and intraday wiggles caused by Wall Street) will give you insight into how the market will react.

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