Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Miners Trading System Signal

This is one of those times when a trading system can't consider all the variables and there's an element of discretion.

System 1 which went long NUGT today actually moved out of the trade at the close. Considering NUGT posted a 5.17% gain (if bought on the open) you may want to keep the position open. The system's standard stop-loss is 3% below today's open @ $26.81.

The reason I mention this is 1) the signal to buy NUGT and subsequently today to sell NUGT tomorrow morning is the first system that has more false signals. 2) System 2 which has less false signals has moved closer today to triggering a long in NUGT as you'll see below.

System 2 is the blue line and a crossover above the red line is the signal to buy NUGT. Last night system 2 was close to a crossover, tonight it's even closer (last night's position is at the red arrow).

This is the age old dilemma of automated signals, whether to take the signals as the system offers them or can you get better performance by intervening when you feel there may be a good reason to do so.

As far as 3C, NUGT looks pretty good, there's a slight 5 min negative divergence suggesting a possible pullback a bit, but nowhere near what the market has been showing.

So I leave it to you.

The official system signals are:
System 1: Close NUGT in the a.m. and re-open DUST long on the open.
System 2: Continues to be long DUST (although it's very close to a NUGT long signal).

Feel free to contact me with any questions you may have.  (BT46N2 @ Gmail.com)

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