Tuesday, June 21, 2011

SWK Trade Idea (Short)

You've probably heard the saying, a rising tide lifts all boats, that means even the horrible looking stocks.

SWK is one on my watchlist that is getting a little bounce (I want to short in to strength), but it's also not performing very well on the bounce.

 This is the big picture in SWK-it's topped, broke the top and is bouncing toward resistance

 Here's a closer daily chart. The volume on the bounce is very light and diminishing. Today's range couldn't hold higher prices and has fallen close to the opening price.

 A 15 min chart shows the break of support (break of the top), some accumulation for a bounce and the current bounce underway. I would not enter a full position without the 15 min chart going negative, but for traders with longer term perspectives that like to phase in to trades as Wall Street does, SWK is a pretty decent looking stock to do that with. One of the advantages of this approach is leaving room to add to the trade if we get higher prices, but also having some short exposure should the market just break down on some unexpected news and we've been getting a lot of that with Greece lately.

 The 5 min chart shows higher prices today didn't stand a chance as 3C would not confirm them, sending SWK lower intraday.

The yellow area is gap resistance, which tends to be some of the strongest resistance. SWK has failed at this area 2x now. If it can rise with a market bounce, I don't see it going much past the white 50-day average around $72, which could be lower by the time it were to reach the area.

If you like the idea of this type of portfolio set up, then I would consider a partial position with risk management allowing for a move to 472 or so, where you can add the rest of the position. If SWK just breaks down, you can add the rest then too, it has plenty of room to fall.

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