Monday, July 11, 2011

Transports

Remember, transports are still an important indication for the market. Under Dow Theory, transports were key in confirming the Industrials. However, since Dow Theory was put forward, many things have changed, we aren't the Industrial giant we once were, we have significantly transformed to tech and services, but still the transports are a valuable tool in assessing the market. After all, if UPS and FedEx aren't doing healthy business, it tells us something about the state of the economy.

Short term, here are the transports in intraday trade (they took a real beating today).

 On a 1 min chart, you can see the 3C negative pressure on the transports (you can use the ETF IYG as well).

 The 5 min hart though, much like the market charts I showed you earlier, suggests some accumulation going on. A decent bounce would probably need to include the transports.

As for the bigger picture, this hourly chart of the Dow-20 (transports) shows the index making a new recovery high last week while a 60 min negative divergence formed (this is also visible and pronounced on a daily chart). It seems here too, on a new high, the transports have had the back of the major uptrend broken.

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