Monday, July 11, 2011

USO Update

I haven't updated USO since early Thursday morning when it broke higher, time for a follow up.

 Last Thursday USO broke out of a consolidation just above support that was turning suspect. However the close was poor, with a daily candle forming  Doji (indecision candle) which often precedes a pullback. Friday USO pulled back to support of a small inverse H&S bottom, today it sliced through support on the open.

 On this 60 min line chart, the bottom is more visible.

 When we talked about swing trends much of last week, we learned that Thursday's candle would be our signal candle as it was the last to make a higher high/higher low. Friday broke the swing uptrend with a closing high less then our signal candle's low (at the orange trendline).

 Here's the 15 min 3 chart for USO, also signaling a pullback as it went negatively divergent at the new swing high.

 Thus far this morning, the 3C 1 min chart is in a relative positive divergence on the open and we've seen some upside from that. USO will need to break back above the H&S neckline at the red trendline.

USO pulled back today to the 10-day moving average, a normal first pullback on a swing move, now can it hold support there? The Trend Channel shows a daly closing stop at $36.90

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