Daily Wrap

I'll keep it short, basically the dominant P/V relationship was overwhelming and it was Price Down/Volume Down, this is the hallmark of a bear market. September isn't usually a great month historically, but we have better reasons to look for poor performance on its way.

Take a look at the important sectors today.

Financials, Tech and Industrials all took it on the chin, only energy was in rotation.

Here are the 15 min 3C charts for the major sectors

 XLE-Energy-leading negative

 XLK-Tech new low in a leading negative

 XLI Industrials, new low in a leading negative

XLF approaching a new low in a leading negative

The Daily BB's for the SPY, it seems the top band has acted as resistance, typically we can look for a move toward the lower band.

You've seen how bad the averages look so I won't repeat those captures.

Tomorrow will be about jobs, but whatever the outcome, these charts are too far gone to not move lower.

Transports were doing well, today they underperformed the Industrials and quickly fell off a cliff in the last two days.

DJ-20

Traditional safe haven trade, the Swiss Franc has been creeping up the last two days and it's 3C chart looks like preparations have been made to send money from equities into the SF.

The Swiss Franc is up 3.26% in the last two days while the S&P-500 s down about .70%, so t seem there's even a little jumping the gun there.

Treasuries, the other safe haven trade struggled yesterday, which made me wonder if they'd fall out of the safe haven correlation...

 TLT did not struggle today.

Furthermore, yesterday's weakness was accumulates and looks a whole lot like a head fake move to set up accumulation.

So do I think we are close to a reversal? I think we are at a reversal, just remember that typically there are more or just as many up days in a downtrend as down days, just the down days are a lot worse, so it won't be a straight line down in my opinion, just keep your eye on the bigger picture and not the intraday and daily gyrations.

Lastly, my crossover screen which worked well with the uptrend, now has 2/3 signals for a downtrend.

One more cross in the middle window and we have a confirmed crossover to the downside and that's almost there.

Luckily 3C has given us days if not a week's notice to put our portfolios together and in line with the trend. Now lets see where it goes.