I suppose I should be happy that 3C's analysis was correct and the market did what was expected, even the jobs number was something I mentioned as being connected with the Philly Fed Index and was likely to be a disaster. However, something still bothers me and we can never be complacent for even a few minutes to bask n the glory of a great call, lest we lose everything we worked so hard to achieve. Don't forget that after this downturn, I'm expecting quite a big rally up to set up the next huge leg down.
Here's UUP, the proxy for the intraday Dollar Index. It is up, but not huge (+.24%), this may explain some of the treasury action I was concerned about.
As you can see, the 15 min chart did confirm the move up this morning, so the 15 min hart is capable of doing such, but there's a slight negative right now.
UUP showed some accumulation yesterday (remember it has an inverse relationship to the market largely), but again the 10 min chart shows a negative divergence right now.
The 5 min chart confirmed, although the move in UUP wasn't huge so confirmation wasn't that far of a stregth, but again there's that negative divergence.
The 1 min chart is out of sync totally.
As for FXE, it is showing a positive divergence, which means the Euro would be expected to be accumulating to move up, which sends the dollar down.
Same with the 5 min chart...
And the 10 min
And the 15 min.
So while the charts of the averages are pretty far gone and suggest we have some substantial downside left, there are hints that I'm concerned about.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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