If you read the Operation Twist post, 3C correctly identified what no one really expected, that the short end would be sold-that was a given, but that the very long end would be bought, that was a surprise. Most consensus views had been that Bernanke would engage in Op. Twist, but he'd focus on the 10 year, which is the basis underpinning most consumer loans including mortgages, I'm sure somebody said it, but I don't recall hearing it, he instead chose to focus most firepower on the very long end -20-30 years T's. 3C didn't predict this, it picked it up from what smart money already had done in buying and accumulating the 20+ T's. Being expectations which are managed by Wall Street and spewed out by the media were focussed on the 10 year, this is pretty much one of those events that we see every so often that shows how corrupt our financial institutions are. Most people would rather think it was a lucky signal then to face the facts about Wall Street, including the Fed. However those of you who have been here the longest have seen stuff like this more then once.
So we have those positive market divergences to deal with and see how they play out. We also saw a little profit taking in TLT today...
TLT 20+ year T-Bond rally on the FOMC statement
Check out the quick accumulation right before, I'm guessing those who weren't in on the bigger play got a heads up from someone at a network with the embargoed statement. And here we have some late day distribution, interesting considering TLT trades inversely to the market and the market saw some nice late day accumulation.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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