Tuesday, October 18, 2011

AAPL-A big surprise

With the new 3C depth charts, which is like a MACD histogram for 3C, showing areas of accumulation and distribution, we have an additional tool to look at long term trends and being the depth charts are a new addition, this is the first time I have really looked at AAPL, one of the largest institutional holdings out there and what I found, absolutely shocked me.

 The daily hart stretching back nearly 2 decades shows AAPL has been under slow and steady distribution for the last 5 years or so and is now at the deepest crest seen in decades. Buying/accumulation was very heavy between the early 1990's through 2004, since then, the VERY LARGE accumulated position has been slowly, but surely been sold in to demand and price strength, both of which are essential to move a position this large without causing price to collapse.

 Hourly chart shows accumulation in the summer of 2010, I'm too tired to see what product they were launching, but I'm sure there's a relationship for those who want to investigate it, I'd be interested in hearing what you dig up.

Distribution of that position has been steady and is leading negative as AAPL hits new highs.

 The 30 min chart shows the same with some moderate accumulation  during early summer 2011.

 The 5 min chart shows several smaller cycles.

 And the 1 min hart virtually collapsed during the most recent rally of the last 2 weeks. This will have an impact on the NASDAQ 100.

 5 min regular/extended trade shows the recent distribution in to price strength.

Last night there was short term 1 min accumulation sending prices higher today during regular hours, that position was distributed in to the highs of afternoon trade and right in to earnings. We'll have to see pre-market tomorrow morning, but it appears that there "may" be some accumulation in after-hours, perhaps to try to fill some of the gap we will surely see on the open.

I think the 1 day chart is fascinating, it seems to show the long term strategy of Wall Street and apparently their view that AAPL is perhaps reaching its zenith.

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