Tuesday, October 18, 2011

AAPL Up to Bat Next

The SPY closing....
 This is what technician's expected to happen on a bearish ascending wedge and exactly why I said watch for the exact opposite at 2:45, although those tend to be short term head fakes and the pattern usually plays out. This is an important lesson for technical traders, all of these patterns that have been with us for over a century and worked well until T.A. became mainstream and the internet and low cost online brokers took Technical Analysis from a "voodoo" study to the "In thing" around the late 1990's, have now become easy money for Wall Street as Technical Traders keep doing the same thing they have been doing since the early 1900's-just look at the book, "Technical Analysis of the Stock Market". You'll see how well these patterns use to work in the 1940's, 1950's and so on. They have now become an albatross around the neck of any technical trader who still follows them and they get manipulated so often, I don't know why Technical traders keep falling for it. To make things worse, Technical Analysis says, "If the pattern fails (as it did above), trade in the opposite direction". This means technical traders went short seeing this bearish pattern, Wall Street does what it always does and manipulated the pattern short term to cause the maximum pain, traders reverse to a long position and then Wall Street takes the pattern down and TA traders lose 2x. It's evident right there in the volume. TA traders went short the bearish Ascending Wedge, it broke down a little bit to sucker in the rest of the traders that wait for confirmation and then took price up and triggered the short stops and the long buy orders. Look at the volume on the 2nd attempt or test of the high, it didn't make it and volume swelled on churning. You an guess what will happen next. This isn't just Ascending Wedges, but any obvious technical pattern, support/resistance area.

Here's the long term chart-15 min- from the start of accumulation for the rally to a leading negative divergence. Note the 3C/MACD/Depth chart as well, it keeps swelling at the crest.

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