GLD will also largely be determined by Gold's actions so I'm not going to get too heavy in to the analysis when a lot depends on the unknown.
This is a major trend trade that I have expected for awhile and should gold head even higher, then I would expect that to help GDX. GDX is gold miners, they own gold, it's just underground and relatively speaking, the last time I checked, they were trading at a significant discount to gold, somewhere around the equivalent of $350 per ounce of proven underground reserves-that's a big discount.
Oddly miners use to always lead gold, now they lag, however I think that has to do with the continued printing and dilution of the dollar's buying power. People quite simply want to hold gold when we are in a dollar deflationary period like we have been in over the last 2+ years. Furthermore, there's a sort of Y2K survival crowd who see the world's turmoil leading to a collapse of the fiat currency system, I think that is unlikely as Central Banks start to become irrelevant in that scenario and we all know who the most powerful American is (he's thoroughly caucasian, bald and has a beard), perhaps the most powerful individual in the world and that artel is not going to let go of that power after all it took them to get there. However, the buying of gold by many central banks does make one wonder if they see a change in the fiat system on the horizon?
As for GDX, I'd wait a bit until there's a solid edge.
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