Wednesday, October 19, 2011

SLV/Silver Update

I really don't like trading the PMs because they are so unpredictable as far as the COMEX goes and that power to raise margin and send PMs lower (When is the last time they cut margin rates?) has only been consolidated under Dodd-Frank legislation.

It certainly makes you wonder what they are up to and there are a lot of theories.

Any way, fundamental surprises aside, here's the update.
 There are two distinct stories going on here depending on the timeframe you are trading, the short term and intermediate term. The 1 min chart above shows SLV getting ahead of itself and responding well on the downside to 3C negative divergences, it tends to rise and fall rapidly on the negative divergence as you can see in the white boxes.

 This 2 min chart's white box represents accumulation under a leading positive divergence about the same time the market was under accumulation, there has been a pretty bad 2 min negative divergence suggesting some downside near term or perhaps consolidation which is taking place now and since the divergence started around the 7-10th of Oct.

 Here's where the story changes to the bullish side at the 5 min chart. The fall/negative divergence was clear, now we have a clear positive divergence as well.

 15 min-The trend is defined well here with a negative at the top, confirmation on the way down and a strong leading divergence through out what would be called a consolidation on this larger view chart.

 The same is seen on the 30 min above and 60 min below.


I think the short term negatives are probably small pullbacks within this range and/or consolidation patterns, but longer term, it looks like silver wants to move higher, which is a little strange as it is more associated with Industrial production then a safe haven from fiat currency, but who knows what s happening at the central bank level, they may be stacking their vaults with PMs. The scary question is why?

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