Wednesday, October 19, 2011

USO Update

 USO 2 min-short term it looks like USO has some intraday/day downside coming.

 5 min shows the accumulation area, similar to the market's and 2 distribution areas. This should effect trade over the next day or so.

 15 min longer term, there was a decent accumulation area so now we are seeing a decent size distribution area.

 60 min-from the market top. In this perspective, this last few months just looks like another counter trend rally within a downtrend.

The EUR/USO correlation has held pretty well so I wouldn't expect a lot of movement until the Euro breaks its top, but the same can be said for a lot of markets. The only place correlation seemed to slip is in the white box where first Euro strength didn't translate in to crude strength and then the opposite happened. Being the market (FX) is relatively flat, it opens crude up to movements from supply issues or geopolitical issues.

I still expect USO to move down and most likely continue the downtrend that is in place on a longer term basis.

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