Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Market Triangle


 I hate to see this triangle form, hopefully it's small enough that we don't have to waste time with it. Over the last 4 days we are now actually down a little bit, which brings up 2 possibilities, 1) consolidation for a move higher, but I would say we would see accumulation in that case, 2) this is what it appears -a top, but unlike how this rally got started (with 10 weeks of accrued accumulation and a "V" bottom), a top will take longer to form as short exposure has to be added from 0, so once again a top in this case more then others, is a process, not an event. However this triangle I don't like seeing not because of any bullishness, just because it's a waste of time-that's my impatience.

 Hopefully the SPY 1 min chart is showing a breakdown rather then a head fake on it. After all, it's not that big.

 You an see what it is doing to volatility and you know what happens when volatility pinches.

Here's the target chart and since the market overshot the target, and since the next move would be down, I'm hoping it doesn't break above the band again, even though the band has turned from up to flat.


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