Monday, November 7, 2011

All the flags

Bear flags are consolidation/continuation patterns, they trend up in a flag like consolidation and then break to new lows continuing the downtrend that preceded them. They are also highly visible on a chart and are almost always manipulated in the short term. According to technical analysis, a bear flag (when it breaks out of the flag) should break downwards, however Wall Street knows that is what technical traders are betting and trading on so they almost always break the flag out to the upside first, which shakes out the shorts that entered short because of the bearish pattern, then to add insult to injury, technical analysis teaches that if a pattern fails, you should reverse your trade and thus go long the failed flag, of course that's about the time that Wall Street lets the flag break down as it was supposed to do the whole time. This is the typical day in and day out manipulation of technical traders that has been going on for over a decade. I do remember when these patterns worked as they were supposed to, but back then technical analysis wasn't very popular either. In any case, the bigger the technical pattern, the more likely it will be manipulated, but also the more likely it will do as it was supposed to do in the first place at some point. Watching for the false breaks can often give you an edge and better positioning on your trade.

 Here is the DIA's flag, different then the SPY, but a flag.  This is as clean of a flag as you will probably see, it has broken below the flag and as normal, tested the lower channel (resistance). There was no significant volume on the DIA break of the flag. The Dow-30 showed a little more volume, but that was on the way to breaking down, not quite on the break.

 Here's 3C during the DIA flag, showing a negative divergence sending price from the top channel to a break down below. On the Dow-30 it is this divergence and move down where the larger volume is found. You can also see a negative divergence on the test of resistance (the lower flag trendline) suggesting that too will fail.


 Here's the QQQ's flag which is manipulated not once, but 3 times, maybe 4, You can see volume pick up as the longs sell when prices re-enter the flag at least 2 times.

 Here's the 15 min QQQ 3C chart for the flag, negative at the first major break, again like the DIA's divergence, volume picked up here and the second negative divergence leading to a negative leading divergence, volume picked up here as well. Why do they do this? Because the earn money on the bid /ask spread by creating events that traders will buy or sell, anytime volume increase, so does their pay day via the bid/ask spread and volume rebates-the more volume they send to their clearing house, the more of a kickback they get in the way of volume rebates.

 Here's the QQQ 5 min showing the last divergence from late Friday and leading negative today, the QQQ should find temporary support at the bottom of the flag and should break below the flag, I would guess with the activity already in the Q's, volume will increase.

Here's the SPY double flag I showed earlier, which I showed the divergences as well, not much of an uptick in volume, but it was there.

The environment right now is technically deteriorating.

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