Monday, November 7, 2011

ES AH

As I said at the close, I wouldn't be surprised to see ES reverse within a few hours, well not to get ahead of ourselves, but take a look thus far.
 Here's ES through the 4 p.m. lose (vertical red trendline), volume is heavy yet there hasn't been a new high since 3:52. As the ES market unwinds, the lower volume should make it easy to lift ES, yet that's not what is happening.

Here's a closer look at the close, again volume was heavy near the close, but the market is lateral, a tell tale sign of churning or offloading shares. Even as volume drops, ES moves lower, not higher.

As for internals on the day, whatever the rumor or catalyst, it wasn't much of an achievement to lift the market as both NYSE and NASDAQ volume ran below the 50 day moving average.

The market AH trade, also thin volume that should continue the advance, is sitting flat on the SPY, slightly higher for the NASDAQ and slightly lower for the DIA/Dow.

Well check back in with ES in a few hours, but my initial gut feel is that this was a low volume-apparently no news, melt-up, which didn't change anything in the Technical picture which is short term negative, sub intermediate positive and Intermediate term negative and looking like the Primary trend wants to turn down.

As mentioned yesterday, price is caught between 2 important support and resistance levels.

The top trendline is the 2011 H&S top neckline (resistance) and the bottom line is the 8/31/ - 10/18 trading range (support). Resistance should be stronger then support and we still have an unfilled breakaway gap at the island top from 10/27 - 10/28.

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