MY Guess

The Denial will come out about the same time as the latest rumor...

 We just saw a swift move up on volume which no doubt has its basis is some rumor about Berlusconi's imminent resignation.

The 2 min SPY positive divergence at the white arrow was about right for the size of the move in the white box, so I think this move is unrelated to that divergence which was most likely just intraday "wobbles".

So lets see what the rumor and denial will be.