Monday, November 7, 2011

Treasury Confirmation

Treasuries trade inversely to the market, when the market falls there is a flight to safety trade in to treasuries, so treasuries should look roughly like the mirror opposite of the market.

 Just as the market shows us bear flags, treasuries (via TLT 20+ year) shows us a bull flag, formed well with correct volume in to the flag. Also at a breakout point as market bear flags are at a breakdown point.

 The 1 min TLT is showing a negative divergence intraday as the market shows intraday positive divergences so this is pretty good confirmation.

 However the TLT 2 min chart looks much stronger then most market negative divergences.

As does the 10 min chart, all of this still suggesting an intraday bounce as the longer term trends like the 10 min chart remain very bullish for treasuries and thus bearish for the market.

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