"The only other thing, aside from what I said at the start, is there's an obvious support line, a lot of the time a good move will start with a head fake, like a move below support and then flying higher."
Which being an inverse ETF, would mean USO would have to break higher out of it's range based trade.
So the correlation to the dollar, which crude is priced in the world over is shattered, the 3C harts long and short look very bad for USO, the potential "false break talked about on Friday has occurred", if it were not for 1 thing, I would call this one of the best short set ups in the market. That one thing is the IAEA inspectors report on Iran's nuclear progress.
The bottom line, probabilities of an Israeli attack on the facilities has gone up and is expected around late November/December. This could be what is pushing on the broken correlation, but the real question is whether USO will be dumped to be accumulated before late November or not. The 3C charts suggest it will. I personally would try to wait and be patient and look for signs of today being a false breakout with USO moving down below the $36.50 level, the harder it falls and the higher the volume, the more likely this is a false breakout setting up a fall and potential accumulation before the end of November.
Crude usually isn't that hard to trade, the exception is when Israel gets involved in the picture especially as it relates to Iran.
Again, I would encourage patience as you may very well end up with an excellent trade here.
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