Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Credit may have been the ugliest today

 High Yield Corporate started selling off in the morning and while the market was lateral, HYG continued to sell off the entire day.


It looks like the robots tried to get an end of day momentum rally going, it failed miserably and took the SPY to the worst levels of the day on volume right in to the close. As a matter of fact, the SPY in the last few minutes took out all intraday lows and closed  below intraday support/lows as well as only  $.06 off the very low of the day in the last minute on some of the heaviest 1 min volume of the week!

ES is still open, but saw the same right in to 4 pm, very ugly indeed. As I mentioned before, bullish indications (once you have entered a real bear market) in a bear market often fail, statistically price patterns are no better then a coin toss, whereas they perform 50% better in a bull market. The opposite can be said of bearish patterns in a bear market, they are much more likely to be effective. I look at this market and all I can think of (as it was tough staying short through October) is the 30/60 min charts which, next to the daily harts, are the most important and just how bad they look; probably the worst I can remember seeing. So I'm sticking with the trend.

From last Friday's S&P close, the S&P has lost more then 6%. We also broke through some October gap support today and the next level of important support is at $114, once that is taken out, there isn't much from sending the market to test the October lows or put another way, the lows of the year, that's where we are for some perspective.

The WOWS Model portfolio just made history and entered the top 10 at number 9 of 8113 portfolios and a weekly gain of an amazing 51.44%, the monthly rank also hit a new high at #22 out of 18,730 portfolios and an 85.72% gain (gotta love those leveraged ETFs). The best thing is, I haven't made a trade in the portfolio since mid-October, just stuck with the longer term 3C charts and my trust in them.

I'll have more for you as I have time, I have to start cooking and I hope everyone in the US has a fantastic Thanksgiving.

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