Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Market Update 1-Risk Basket

The 3C template is loading now so here's the RISK Basket Indicators.

 Any bounce hopes commodities may have been contemplating the last few days as they dislocated higher against the S&P, were firmly dashed with the Chinese PMI, on a Relative-Rate of Change basis, the Commodity basket fell harder this morning then the S&P as they are now back in sync.

 While MF Global liquidations have put pressure on commods recently, you can see a pattern on commodity weakness that has been a lot longer lasting then the MF Global situation, before the summer, they were in line with the market.

 The market and Euro are trading in lockstep for the most part, it's obvious where today's and all recent weakness has come from, about 6,000 miles east of my location.

 Yesterday High Yield Credit was one of the only risk assets to really move and it moved down vs. the market-CREDT LEADS EQUITIES.

 Here the market usually catches up with rates, the S&P still has a lot of downside room to catch up.

Also I noted weakness yesterday in financials, the market is now starting to see the pendulum effect, the market swings too high and now it will likely lead in discounting and swing much lower then the median.

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