Some Traditional Analysis and Gut Feeling

This is a 2 purpose post, maybe 3, 1) to show you the difference between the forest and the trees 2) maybe it helps you in some traditional analysis and 3) I actually want the market to bounce, I want a good tactical entry as the forest is very negative, but a short term bullish move would be much appreciated in setting up new shorts or adding to existing ones.

Even when you are 100% right about the market, the market will try to make you doubt yourself, I think that is one of the reasons that statistically, we see as many or more up days in a bear market then down days, however the down days are much more severe.

 Here is the S&P-500 on a daily chart with standard Bollinger Bands, when an index as big as the S&P-500 "Walks the bands" as you can see at the red arrows as the S&P tracks along the lower band, this is exceptionally bearish for the market.

 On an hourly BB hart, note that the market bounces between the lower band and the median and sometimes to the upper band. We have a gap in yellow and a bounce to the upper band would fill that gap and allow for good short trade positioning, just know if it happens, this is the "Trees", not the "Forest".

 The short term 10 min BB's are pinching which indicates a directional move is coming, with my Demark inspired indicators firing a long signal (on a 10-min chart),  would guess the break will be to the upside.

 Here's an intrday base-like pattern with resistance nearly broken, it may be broken by the time I post this. The implied price pattern target is between $118.30-$118.50, that's in the yellow gap zone, but not a complete fill. Volume is picking up to the right as it should for a base breakout, again, this is nothing that concerns me or my short positioning, but an opportunity for some members to get positions at a better/safer level.

 The hourly crossover chart has as it should, seen a few retracements to the yellow 10-bar average at the white arrows, usually the 2nd/3rd retracement is deeper and hits the blue 22 bar moving average, which would put the market in the gap and possibly fill it, however, even if that happens, all the sell signals (this screen uses 3 signals for a short/long trade) remain intact, again, separating the forest from the trees.

 My proprietary Trend Channel has held the entire move down on a 60 min chart, a bounce to the top of the channel would not change the trend, but it would nearly fill the gap and offer a SCSO (Second Chance Shorting Opportunity).

The daily Trend Channel really defines the trend and the market would have a pretty big boune to break that which I do not see happening. This Trend Channel on a daily chart does an incredible job of defining trends and keeping you in the trade when your emotions say otherwise.

So that's my take or at least "Gut feeling".