Watch the Diplomats...

OK, problems in Syria, we know that. The Arab League is considering a no fly zone, France pulled their ambassador and when that happened last week I said, watch for other countries to quietly pull their diplomats as well as this would be an indication that military action is about to be undertaken.

Well guess what, CBS news reported the following in the last hour or so:

U.S. urges Americans to leave Syria "immediately"

Furthermore:

The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart "immediately," and Turkey's foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria.

The warning followed an announcement in Washington this week that Ambassador Robert Ford would not return to Syria this month as planned, indicating concerns over his safety.

Here it is...

The Obama administration quietly pulled Ford out of Syria last month, citing credible personal threats against him.

The warning came two days after Syrian soldiers opened fire on at least two buses carrying Turkish citizens, witnesses and officials said, apparent retaliation for Turkey's criticism of Assad. The Turks were returning from Saudi Arabia after performing the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.


Here's the kicker from Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting):

Focus on the CVN-77, George Bush Aircraft Carrier, it has moved from its traditional parking spot, the Straits of Hormuz which is a strategic position the US maintains and has moved right in to striking distance (or thereabouts) of Syria. 


What makes this a VERY volatile situation is that the Chinese and Russians absolutely are against ANY intervention in Syria and are so serious about it that the Russians have moved warships in to Syrian waters.


Russia has a naval base in Syria at the port of Tartus.


Perhaps even more serious (I'm not sure if you get too much more serious then having a US Aircraft Carrier Battle Group and Russian warships in close proximity), but Iran has said explicitly that any attack on Syria would be grounds for Iranian retaliation.


If there is 1 thing the market hates, it is uncertainty and going into a long holiday weekend, it is not likely to take this news well. That is why there is the old Wall Street saying, "When the missiles fly it is time to buy", it is not because Wall Street wants or loves war (but that is up for debate), it is because the start of war removes the uncertainty before it.


I would say the timing of the CBS release and the market's failure to break resistance are NOT coincidental.