I'm going to load the risk/credit template, so here's a 3C update, which has me very happy to have added to my shorts as I believe this was the opportunity many of you have been looking for to enter the market on the short side or add to positions.
1 min SPY has made no attempt to confirm the gap up today and is in leading negative position, furthermore prices seem to have hit a resistance level that thus far, they have not been able to break through.
SPY 2 min should have easily confirmed any strength by now, instead it is heading lower while it is already in a leading negative divergence. It looks like this pop is being used to sell short. They tried rumors last night, they didn't work for long and they kept throwing stuff at the wall until something stuck, but there seems to be no fundamental value to this gap up other then as a tactical technical short entry.
Even the 15 min chart, which does not usually perform well in sideways/lateral environments as we had seen just before the market cracked lower, is negative on this move and very much so.
The long term charts remain very ugly and have been the sole reason that I have stuck with my short positions even as the market moved against them. Right now, we are leading negative, way below the October lows.
DIA 5 min, very rapid deterioration, both on a weekly view and intraday.
A close up of the intraday action.
QQQ 1 min-this is the kind of confirmation I look for, all of the averages are unable to confirm the gap and leading negative even on the shortest timeframes, the QQQ has lost ground intraday, while already being leading negative.
The 15 min chart looks almost exactly the same as the SPY 15 min chart-two different averages, two different versions of 3C, same result=confirmation.
And the long term, a new leading negative low, well below the October price lows.
I am using today as an opportunity to add to short positions wherever I can, mostly I'm sticking with directional ETF trades in my equity model portfolio such as (longs): SPXU, SQQQ, SDOW, SRTY, FAZ, TYP, EDZ, TZA and SRS.
I also have a few equity shorts (real shorts): KCG and JEF.
I have some longs I'm holding such as: UNG and URRE.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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