Monday, November 28, 2011

Traders Flocking to the Safe Haven Trade-Treasuries

Treasuries and the market have an inverse correlation, when the market is up treasuries are usually down and when the market is down, traders flock to the safety of treasuries, which is why today's action is not only unusual, but seems to be an indication of things to come as almost every metric we have seen today show this gap up as a weak move and thus an opportunity to consider entering shorts on strength.

 Here the SPY still is holding, albeit laterally, to this morning's gains, however, treasuries in red, "should" be holding near their opening lows, instead they have rallied all day and are now in the green, completely at odds with the normal correlation and seeming to indicate that traders, the smart money ones, are preparing for a "risk off" environment or in plain English, a market move down.

 Here's TLT since the opening gap down, it has rallied all day in to the green.

 The 3C TLT 1 min chart, unlike the SPY chart is confirming the strength, showing both a positive divergence on the open as well as confirmation on the move up and a leading positive divergence currently.

More importantly, the 5 min chart is leading positive, even above treasuries recent highs when the market was falling last week.

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