Monday, November 28, 2011

US New Home Sales Misses/ Possible SRS long trade

This was from 10 a.m., here's consensus and actual from Bloomberg



SRS is a long time/long term favorite for playing a weak housing market, since giving a long signal it has pulled back, as usual, to the 10-day moving average, an area I often like to be a buyer.


PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR313 K310 K300 K to 320 K307 K
Consensus for a print of 313k with the actual missing at 307k, but as usual, the devil is in the details. The New Home Sales print is an annualized print, the actual number of new homes sold was only 25k!

The average new home sale price dropped to a 8+ year low, or in other words, new homes are selling for roughly the same amount as they did before the housing bubble began.

Furthermore in the $750k+ category, less then 500 new homes sold in the US for the 3rd consecutive month in a row.

This just validates my long term bullishness on the Ultrashort real estate ETF SRS above.












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