Monday, November 28, 2011

Market Update-More Confirmation

I loaded the Credit/Risk indicators and as 3C and CONTEXT suggested, there's a dislocation between the S&P and risk assets broadly, which for me, makes for a good short entry point or add to point for current short positions.

 Commodities (This is a broad average of commodities) are taking a plunge and really more in line with the Euro, however if this was a strong risk on rally/bounce, commodities should defy the Euro as the S&P has done this morning, since they haven't, it signals to me a weak bounce and thus a good opportunity to consider adding to or initiating new shorts.

 Here's the dislocation between the S&P and the Euro, which typically trade in lock step with each other.

 We saw this earlier, momentum in financials is definitely falling behind momentum in the market, this is not a good sign, especially for the financial heavy S&P-500.

 High Yield Credit has also dislocated from the S&P and is now selling off.

 High Yield Corporate Credit is doing the same. You can see the current dislocation to the right and a recent on to the left, notice what happens to the S&P right after a dislocation like the one to the left, it plunged the next day.

The market not only follows credit but rates as well and they are leaking lower, you can seem in virtual real time how the S&P is following rates lower.

Given the 3C charts and the confirmation in the risk/credit layout, this does look like the opportunity many have been looking for to use some strength in the market to short in to.


No comments: