Tuesday, November 29, 2011

KCG follow up/Trade

While I'm updating financial shorts in the model portfolio, here's KCG.

 This looks very much like a top after a very brief move up, there appear to be two levels of support that I'll be watching, but this is already a short position in the portfolio from when it was first covered.

 The custom crossover screen did a great job weeding out false crosses and the middle custom indicator kept KCG long until the red squares. This is why I NEVER use a crossover system without this screen as false crosses are too many.

 The Trend Channel also was broken (up trend broken) around the same time as the chart above.

 The 30 min chart shows the top which note has a parabolic spike, I watch for these as signals of a trend change, right now the 30 min is leading negative, that's pretty serious. Of course this too is a financial.

 On the recent bounce, the 5 min chart identified the top and note there was another parabolic spike in the area, currently this 3C chart is leading negative as well.

 The 1 min chart didn't even bother trying to confirm, thus a very weak bounce and the kind I prefer to short as price strength gives you an opportunity and the underlying weakness confirms the probabilities of that opportunity.

 Using the Trend Channel as a way to uncover the top on an intraday chart worked well also.

Like JEF, I'll be paying attention to price around the last ditch support levels, should they be broken as I imagine they will be, KCG should see a wave of stops hit and a pretty fast fall.

I think KCG is worth a look as a short position even today.

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