Tuesday, November 29, 2011

UNG Update

This is the second of the two long positions in the WOWS model portfolio and definitely the longer term trade.
UNG already has a very strong daily leading positive divergence, as I say, we can see what they are doing, but often don't find out why until later. UNG reminds me of URRE, so might as well update it.


 Here UNG fell below any support on a report released by the Army Corp of Engineers and the USGS which found that deep well drilling for energy like Nat. Gas promoted earthquakes and Nat Gas fell on that report, but looking at the longer term implications, this may be why UNG has such a positive daily chart. Surely smart money knew about the USGS study underway and probably the conclusions, which at first seem bad for nat. gas, but from a supply side perspective, the supply may be severely diminished by legislation, which of course alters the supply/demand equation and thus prices, so seemingly bad news, may in fact be the reason UNG has seen such heavy long term accumulation. The price chart looks very similar to URRE when I posted the update last week.


 Here's the resistance level UBG needs to break above, it would be like the $1.00 level in URRE, except here it is around $8.05 or so.

 The long term 3C charts also show similar accumulation as UNG fell.

 The 15 min chart is VERY bullish with a strong leading positive divergence which tells me that accumulation by smart money is highly probable.

Here's the Trend Channel daily stop level in which a breakout above the white trendline should reverse the trend to up, it is around the $8.10 mark, similar to the resistance level. I'm already long UNG and plan to hold, you may want to take a look at the trade or at least keep it on your radar for a breakout.

I think the upside target in UNG could be quite significant, I see the probability for at least a double and perhaps much more.

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