Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Market Update

Take a look at the SPY which has essentially stalled for the time being.

 There's an important intraday support level that the SPY is toying with now.

 This morning there was some attempt in 3C to move higher toward confirmation, but it fell WAY short, since then it has moved in the opposite direction, which is what I would expect given the dislocations.

 The 2 min chart looks similar

 And a close up of the 2 min chart for today's action. Note the spike and failure on a deep negative divergence, this may be around the time the two Fed speakers, Yellen and Lockhart essentially contradicted each other regarding QE 3; more on that coming.

ES for all intents and purposes looks very similar with a new leading negative divergence hitting new lows.

As for the F_E_D speakers today, Janet Yellen and Dennis Lockhart, they contradicted each other re: QE3, with Yellen saying:


  • YELLEN SAYS `SCOPE REMAINS' FOR ADDITIONAL FED EASING
  • YELLEN SEES `STRONG CASE' FOR POLICIES TO BOOST U.S. HOUSING
Only a few minutes later and where I suspect that price spike failed, Lockhart said:

  • `SKEPTICAL' MORE BOND-BUYING WILL HELP ECONOMY
  • LOCKHART SAYS ASSET PURCHASES NOT A `POTENT POLICY OPTION'
So it would seem that for at least today, a QE3 "Hopium" rally is probably not in the cards, it will be left up to Europe to throw as many rumors against the wall as they can and see if anything sticks, however the last 2 days don't seem to be a bounce based on anything other then the typical market counter trend movements. f there were something serious that was backing the bounce, credit would likely be leading the market, not lagging it.

No comments: