GLD Update

It's been a while so I'll make it a bit broader.

 a 5 day chart of GLD, the smooth uptrend has had a definitive change in character at the triangle. Large triangles are NOT consolidation patterns, but more typically tops or bottoms, depending on what trend precedes them, this would be considered a top. The question is whether it is a primary top in which case gold may be a bubble waiting to burst, or an intermediate top, in which case it likely pulls back a healthy amount and resumes an uptrend or perhaps moves laterally as there are 3 trends (up, down and sideways). Volume at the triangle is correct for the price pattern.

 Here's a 1-day chart close up, the yellow box is a break away gap, we don't see many of these any more, the volatility in the market seems to fill most gaps, however if it does hold, it will have very bearish implications for gold and lean toward a primary trend adjustment. The red trend line is an area offering some resistance. Remember what I have said about large volume days at a support level? They are typically a type of reverse churning and a reversal point, in any case, there's overhead volume there that may be creating some resistance. It's all psychological, assume you bought on that day because price hit support (as did many others based on the volume), then eventually GLD fell 9-10%, when price nears your buy area, you become a seller as you have prayed for the last 2 months, "If I can just get out at break-even" and presto, you know understand the emotional component that creates overhead resistance.

 Here's GLD vs the Euro which has been a decent proxy in non QE periods. Note what happens when GLD runs up without the Euro's support, it's happened 3 times already and each time GLD reverts down to the Euro (of course the dollar index has 50% weighting of the Euro, but for some reason the Euro has a better correlation strangely.) We have that same thing happening now in yellow, that's not a prediction, just an observation.

 The 150-day moving average is well known throughout the gold trading community as a solid buy point historically, we were waiting for a pullback to the average to look at a buy, but this time was different and we put that on hold. GLD still hasn't tested the 150 ma and the recent bounce has been on declining volume.

 However the 200 day average should be noted as long term it has provided support and resistance. Gold traders are too hung up on the 150.

 Here we see the importance of the 200 day, not only did it provide resistance and support, but the biggest volume day on the breakdown from the triangle was not the breakaway gap, it was the break below the 200-day m.a. The break away gap remains significant resistance, but that's still a ways off.

 A 60 min chart shows some weakness in this recent bounce above the 200 day, the white trendline is an off chart positive divergence at the lows that started this bounce.

 On a 15 min chart 3C is not as strong as it should be, it has seen a couple of distribution moments like the one in the red box that may be holding it back from solid confirmation, however with volume falling off as GLD has gone up, I wouldn't expect strong confirmation here.

 On a shorter term basis, the 5 min hart shows decent confirmation, so I don't see the GLD move as being over yet.

On a shorter timeframe, we see some negative 3C action which has sent GLD lower today despite a weaker dollar.

In my opinion, there's not a strong trade set up either way in GLD yet and I would be patient, but keep it on your radar, I think a strong set up will come, but it's not here yet.