Thursday, January 19, 2012

URRE Update

URRE continues to do as expected, maybe a little faster then expected, it also is a good example of what we are not seeing in the broad market, confirmation and even better. Since I covered the long term yesterday, I'm just going to stick to today's action and the examples mentioned above.
 The first example that has been a year plus trend in the market is that of large wedges, whether they be bullish ascending wedges like this one or bearish ascending wedges (of which the broad market shows several although not as large as this). According to 100+ years of technical analysis, once a wedge makes an apex (point), it should break out, in this case, an upside breakout, with ascending wedges, they should break down. I have been noting for well over a year that this has changed, the wedges now create a period of lateral consolidation, in this case a base, but almost always have a head fake move first. You can see the head fake move in URRE as it looked like it was breaking out of the October apex, this is what traders expect and many probably got nailed on this one as it failed. The difference between professional traders and retail is that professionals will take several shots at the entry until they get the position/entry they want. Retail would have taken 1 shot at this on the breakout, got stopped out and would have long forgotten about URRE, which may be part of the reason this is happening. It gives institutional money that quiet period to accumulate when no one else seems interested in the stock.

In any case, URRE has continued to round up as I have been hoping to see, today it's up 11+%. Since I view this as the second part of URRE accumulation, this second base may not need to be that big. The way in which URRE closes today will tell whether it is just seeing a decent day and will continue to base or whether t is moving to stage 2 mark up. If it is moving to mark up, then volume will be large on the day and there should be a breakout above the white line, this is the attention getter to get retail involved in URRE again and from there, URRE should trend up well for a decent period. Watch price and volume today.

 Unlike the market, here is 3C in perfect confirmation of the move higher.

 Here we see on a 5 min chart, the accumulation in the "U" shaped area.

On the 15 min chart, we also see that accumulation that has bled over from the 5 min chart and 3C is not only confirming the trend, but is leading it as 3C is higher then the relative price point at the left of the red trendline, while price is still below that relative price point, this is a bullish chart with excellent confirmation.

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