Market Update

 There's two views here, one intraday and two a bit longer. This i a bit longer on the DIA, the 3C level refuses to even confirm at price levels seen on the 17th and even further back beyond the 12th. This very thin wedge-like price action that is poking out like a thin limb looks very dangerous, along the lines of a parabolic move which almost always ends badly with an equally nasty parabolic price move in the other direction.

 Intraday, it looks like this move is losing steam, it has roughly been following a Euro bounce that has been very parabolic.

There's the 1 min Euro parabolic move.

 The Q's are also not confirming price action even at the levels of the 12th and before the 6th on this chart.

 Intraday in the Q's there also seems to be a reversal nearing, although I'd expect the Euro to reverse first.

 longer term again there hasn't been confirmation of the move even back to levels at the 10th-11th. This recent price action looks very dangerous to me on the upside.

 Intraday the 2 min is bleeding n to the 5 min, as if they know the parabolic move in the Euro won't last and are cashing out on intraday trades.

 The long term trend also has been negative recently. The dates in white show rough 3 confirmation of the market trending down, it's the area in red where it won't follow price.

 SPY intraday is also losing momentum like the other averages.

 Again, longer term no confirmation, even at lower price levels of the 17th or before the 11th.

This gives a better feel of why I feel this move in red is a dangerous area for the market, it's very thin, there's very little short interest in the market left, the majority of stocks (as seen last night) that have advanced have done so on diminishing volume.

I'm not huge on these kinds of articles or including them n my own analysis, but apparently on GS's Sales round up call they said the following, which would fit very well with what 3C has been showing...actually I'll just show the entre quote as there is some other information on retail coming back in the market, that would be the obvious suckers GS would be dumping to (from yesterday):

"Earlier today we got our first clue that the smart money has stopped "distribution" and is now offloading to retail after we saw the first equity fund inflow, however tiny, in months, and only the second one out of 37 outflows since April, as reported by ICI. The second and far more important one comes from today's Goldman sales roundup, which confirmed that following today's latest borderline ridiculous meltup, retail investors looking for the sucker at the poker table, wouldn't be able to find one. Here's why. Quote Goldman: "As has been the recent trend, our cash flow remains better to sell, both from long-only and hedge funds." And there you have it: smart money (well, relatively so) has "recently" been using every melt up chance it gets to dump the bags with the E*Trade baby. Third and final proof: "ETF flow however skewed toward better buying." At this point retail investors may want to ask themselves: what do they know that the others, who are actively selling to them, don't."