Friday, March 30, 2012

AAPL Bounce

AAPL bounced very close to my trend line, there are a couple of lessons here...

First, as always look for a bullish candle, this one has a long lower wick and look for that candle on high volume. Also the concept of support and resistance (I didn't draw the trendline like a scientist with a microscope) is that they are areas created by emotion, not exact levels. Whenever I see, "Support is at $13002.92" I laugh inside (LIS) because I know I'm dealing with someone who has every page of Edwards and McGee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" memorized and hasn't spent an hour actually looking at the market. The market is emotions and that is what creates support and resistance and emotions, especially when very charged, don't care about exact levels.

In any case, I'm looking for a bounce and I may just put on a Put position in the model portfolio and hold over the weekend, it will have to be smaller with the Sunday Chinese Flash PMI event risk, but perhaps they'll be a little more truthful after seeing the reversal of US economic data.

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