Released On 3/30/2012 9:45:00 AM For Mar, 2012
| Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | |
| Business Barometer Index - Level | 64.0 | 63.0 | 59.7 to 66.0 | 62.2 |
The miss itself is not huge, but it is another in a long line of macro-economic data misses that has formed a trend since we have moved out of the seasonal adjustment period (the "I can make up any BS I want to based on seasonal adjustments that are totally arbitrary").
The fear about the CHI-PMI was not the headline number, but the sub-component indices.
New orders dropped badly, prices paid went up badly (indicative of a margin squeeze), however the main sub component being watched was the employment index and it didn't disappoint spectators.
The Employment index dropped amazingly from 64.2 to 56.3 which is the biggest drop since Feb. 2009 when the market was still dropping!
Nearly all jobs created in 2012 in this index have now been lost which does not bode well for the upcoming Non-Farms payroll.
In other words, the worm was turned.
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