Friday, March 30, 2012

In to Friday

Picking up from where I left off last night, ES has managed to stay elevated despite some EU volatility; ES closed at 4 pm at 1397.75 and is now at $1405.25, as suspected and just as we saw early in the week on strength, 3C has stayed negative all night moving lower and lower. As I mentioned, this is very rare, I've only seen it a handful of times and the last time was Mon-Tues of this week.

I mentioned that there woud be rumors and denials, like the combined EFSF/ESM EU bailout mechanism reaching $940 bn Eu. to ramp the market a little, the real number came out today at $800 bn, but of this, much of that capital is already committed.

As Schaueble commented,

"We have 500 billion euros in fresh money available, together with the programs already agreed for Ireland, Portugal and the new program for Greece. It is about 800 billion (euros). I think it's enough."


And that where the other 300 bn are, in already committed to programs.


As Predicted just yesterday, overnight Greece came out and said they may need another bailout! Or more accurately, has not ruled out another aid package for Greece!


EU CPI came in just above expectations at 2.6 vs consensus of 2.5


Now the real joke, the market moved Monday because of a pre-market comment by Bernie that could be interpreted as more QE, but did not say that.


Today from Bernie:



The Fed Chairman added that the Fed has the tools to tighten policy when needed.


Add in Plosser:


Fed's Plosser has said that raising rates by 1% by the end of 2012 is ‘conceivable’ due to sound employment growth and stable inflation.  Fed’s Lacker commented that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate but there is evidence that quantitative easing is having a mixed impact.


So we start the week talking about additional accommodation and end it talking about winding down additional accommodation, these guys just jerk the market any which way they like with comments that really mean nothing.


In any case, we got our gap.....





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