Friday, March 30, 2012

Risk Layout Update

 Commodities ticked up today as I suspected they might, but still remain pretty dislocated from equities, in white is a positive commodities divergence.

 This chart is a bit hard to understand because of scaling, but all you have to know is this is High Yield Credit and the orange line is where it closed yesterday so it hasn't moved above yesterday's close, the green line is where the SPX closed, it has bounced above the close, thus we have a negative divergence between credit and the market as I expected to see.

 Yields remain divergent from the SPX

 HY Corp. Credit just barely moved above yesterday's close, much is much less inclined to take risk on here as the SPX bounces.

 The $AUD, a great leading indicator is divergent again from the SPX, the last time it was divergent was at this week's early highs and the SPX fell from there.

Here's the $USD dollar correlation and recent trend I talked about last night, there's early strength in the dollar which is a drag on the market and then around 1 p.m. it turns down which gives the market a boost, the key is it happens only AFTER the EU markets close.

So far so good.

No comments: