Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Financials

 XLF looks like it's working on some kind of top, it's difficult to say what at this point, maybe a triangle, a descending triangle, a H&S, etc. We'll have to see how it reacts at the current trendlines.

 Why do I think this is a top and not a consolidation? Volume is one of the first things I look at when trying to confirm a top. from May-July of 2009 there was a small pattern that looked like a H&S top, if traders understood volume and the characteristics of a top better, they would have realized it was simply a random price pattern. In the same area as the top I drew above, I have constructed a simple cumulative volume indicator, volume should rise on rallies and fall on declines, here we see volume fall off on yesterday's rally and it increase on the decline. Thus far today, volume has fallen off on a little bounce, this is common in a top; the cumulative volume indicator just makes it easier to see.


 Here's the 30 min chart, notice it is leading negative and making a lower low today, yet price didn't make a lower low (compare between the current reading and the small red trendline).

 Here's the 15 min chart divergent at yesterday's top and leading negative all of today, remember that the shorter charts like this 15 mi flow in to the longer like the 30 min above.

 The 5 min chart is leading negative as well, that is not a positive divergence in the red square at the higher low, it is simply in line as price did the same thing.

 The 2 min chart at yesterday's highs  and today is leading negative

A close up of the 1 min shows an early positive divergence on the gap down lows and another recently, so we may get a chance to see how XLF reacts at the top trend line I drew on the first chart above.

I'll update again as it develops.

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