Tuesday, March 20, 2012

The Risk Off Overnight Session

There are a lot of stories floating around this morning about why risk is off, it always irks me.

-Market participants reacted to cautious comments from Moody’s rating agency on Spain, which noted that Spain’s fiscal outlook remains challenging despite easier targets.

-A BHP Billiton executive said that Chinese demand for iron ore is flattening, while according to China's state-backed auto association, China's vehicles sales this year will probably miss their growth forecasts.

-There may be a possible coup in China

Some of the timing of these stories just doesn't fit and for others, we have seen the market rally on a lot worse news.

I have little doubt what this is about...


ES and all of the averages saw 3C break down hard at the top of a parabolic move, this happened yesterday afternoon, well before any of this news came out.


Here's ES overnight...

But who would have need for the media if they weren't there to tell you why the market did what it did at any point in time? The fact is the market does a lot of things for reasons that are unknown to us at the time as Wall Street works far in advance of today's headlines.

We can follow elephants footprints, but their reasons are usually only made clear after the opportunity to profit from them has passed.

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