Thursday, March 29, 2012

Market Update

 DIA 2 min , this is a strange divergence, there's a clear positive divergence, but between 1 and 2 pm today it's going a little negative, pullback/consolidation maybe?

 Just for perspective, the same chart showing the longer term trend and this was a difficult one as the market went higher earlier in the week and 3C not only didn't confirm, but consistently went lower, well in the end it was right, but those few days were tough.

 ES is strange too, it went positive, we started to see or are seeing the market turn up in a "U" shape intraday, but like the DIA chart above, recently it's gone negative here. Again, pullback? Consolidation? Distribution ? It's hard to say from this chart. I just can't imagine that these divergences aren't enough to bounce the market.

 IWM 5 min showing a good positive divergence for a bounce

 The same chart for perspective is leading negative territory.

 Ad the IWM 30 min saw some damage as it led lower negative. So the short term bounce is going up against this longer term more important 30 min leading negative, or in other words, short term bounce, but longer term trend is deteriorating bad here.


 The QQQ 1 min still seems like this is the weaker of the averages.

 The divergence is not very clean on this 5 min chart, but it is still there and positive.

 Again, interestingly, the 1 min chart from 1-2 pm is intraday negative within a bigger positive divergence, not sure what that is about, but it is a consistent theme. Maybe they want the bounce to occur at a certain time to align with some news or a gap opening.

 The divergence looks pretty good on the 2 min chart, although for newer members, you have to remember this is still a short term chart representing a short term trend, but I can't see how this doesn't bounce the market from here.

 The 5 min chart has a much cleaner divergence, partially because the noise of the 1 min chart isn't seen as this is akin to a longer term moving average vs a shorter term moving average, obviously the longer term has less noise.

The divergence stops at 5 mins though, the 15 min chart still showing no hint of the positive divergence and has seen some significant damage done as it leads lower.

I'll try to get up a PM's update, then I want to loo at our Risk layout.

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