Friday, May 4, 2012

AAPL Update

I'm getting a lot of email questions about what I'm doing with AAPL, first understand that the bulk of my positioning is all short in equities, these are the shorts I've been building in to strength using straight short positions. Every trade in the equities model portfolio is in the green. AAPL represents a small speculative trade because it is counter to my major market view, however as mentioned last night, I never pass up on the kind of divergences in AAPL yesterday.

As for today, Yes, I'm still holding AAPL Calls purchased yesterday. Here are the charts for AAPL this morning.

 AAPL has held a support range the last 4 prior days-not exact support, but a range, today's move is a break below that range, this in itself is not worrisome to me as this is something that is seen more than 80% of the time before a reversal (in this case to the upside), the size and duration of such a move varies, but with AAPL, it's not surprising to see a decent size break of that support area. The intraday price action in AAPL has gone from one of decline to a lateral trend for the last hour or so starting around 10:30 this morning (this is part of the reason I use to usually sit out the first hour to 1.5 hours of the market for the most part -it's noisy and most of the time has little to do with what is really going on, it's a time for the middle men and now HFTs to take advantage of orders, stops, etc.). Volume is also making a rounding formation, associated with a rounding bottom. This alone isn't enough to stay in the trade.
 As the market has gone lateral in AAPL, the 2 min is responding favorbly.

 The 3 min is as well

 The 5 min lost some ground, but still remains in a fairly good size relative positive divergence.

The 15 min chart of AAPL is where I'm most interested in the short term trade. If this chart didn't look the way it did, I probably wouldn't have taken the chance with AAPL. There's an intraday move up in this chart which is longer and takes longer to respond.

So for now I'm sticking AAPL out. If certain conditions were to develop which would include very strong signals in AAPL, Tech and the market itself, I "may" consider adding to AAPL, THIS IS NOT to average down my position size, I can easily cut the position here and not have to worry too much about the loss. The only way I would add to AAPL is if it looked like a stronger trade today than it did yesterday.

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