Longer term view of ES, a negative divergence just before the NFP release, 3C was in line (confirming the move down) at the green arrow in to the market open and early morning. There have been 2 positive divergences, when 3C/ES is in this mode, it usually tracks intraday moves pretty well, the leading positive divergence is stronger than the previous and near where 3C was at the NFP announcement when price was quite a bit higher.
A closer look at ES during regular hours.
GLD as a sentiment indicator for the QE-crowd. The drop in GLD had me a little puzzled at first until I looked at the next chart.
The white line is the Euro, traditionally GLD and risk assets move pretty closely to the Euro, that's because the $USD is doing the opposite as the EUR/USD make up 50% of the Dollar Index, so the Euro topped before GLD and started trending down as GLD was still up this morning, I think that FX arbitrage relationship caused GLD to dip, but sentiment seems to be strong as GLD has broken free from the correlation as the Euro is flat and GLD trades up.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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