Baseline for ES

There's also been some talk of a leak in the NFP just prior to its release. The media sees an advance "embargoed" NFP report, they work from their own computers writing stories and analysis of the NFP so once it is released, the media outlets can talk about the NFP as if they have instant analysis on the print, they actually formulate their analysis quite a bit before the print is released.

You may have heard of a recent push by the government, which I take as an admission they know the NFP and other reports are routinely leaked, to have reporters to sit in a room using secure government computers to do their pre-NFP release, to ensure that no one gets the information ahead of any one else. Why would the government would push for this if they didn't suspect or already know such reports have been leaked.

In any case, in today's edition, one minute before the release, S&P Futures lost 7 points, rallied back up close to where they were before the first move down and then moved down again by 7 points. That movement in less then a minute was twice the entire overnight ES range. Draw your own conclusions.

Since writing the above, here's the new baseline for ES