Tuesday, May 1, 2012

ES Update

 CONTEXT for ES is still holding up, the model is still rich to ES.

On the other hand the negative divergence in ES is just getting worse, this presents a dichotomy. The last 3 failed bounces ES saw a persistent negative divergence, meaning it kept leading lower in to higher prices, all 3 of those bounces failed, so yesterday we were able to look at 3C on ES as an intraday indicator, I'm not sure it is wise to consider doing the same today with the past 3 bounces doing what ES / 3C is doing now. It is negative for the market for sure, but as a timing vehicle, it becomes less useful.

I need to step back because I can feel the emotional pressure and excitement to call this a top and that is not what I need to be doing, I need to be gathering facts. So although I want to keep looking at potential trades as I feel rushed that the market could crack and break down here, I know that the market can go higher in to these negatives. So while I don't want to take the time away from looking at positions, I need to look at our risk asset indicators and see what it going on here. That will be the next post.



No comments: