"Here's GLD vs the Euro (proxy for the dollar), note that gold moved up in to the green today, despite the $USD correlation that would suggest otherwise, since GLD is the primary beneficiary of more QE, which I must at this point mention, Paul Krugman has been everywhere in the last 4 days calling for more QE, I think as I suspected early today, the QE-hopeful crowd seems to have spun the bad economic reports in to good news thinking Bernie has to ease with the economy faltering. I mentioned last week after the F_O_M_C announcement that GLD would be the barometer of QE hopeful sentiment; in their eyes, the weak economic data is QE positive, therefore gold and market positive."
If I just showed you the GLD daily chart you wouldn't get the feel for the concept above, but if you look at the intraday chart and 10 a.m. specifically, you can see the QE hopefuls dreams were temporarily crushed based on the ISM print.
For months we have been trying to figure out whether GLD was a risk on asset or a flight to safety trade as it has gone both ways or if there was no correlation and GLD was just doing its own thing which I suspect is putting in at least an intermediate top, maybe longer.
The trend in GLD right now is clearly a QE sentiment driven one at least in the near term so that question has been answered for the time being.
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