Thursday, June 7, 2012

FB Update

Bottom line, I still like FB for a move higher.

 The setup, an existing downtrend followed by an inherently bearish price pattern (descending triangle) which is a classic TA set up, the move below the pattern confirming the bearish pattern for technical traders followed by a shakeout move higher. This is VERY similar to the GLD recent trade which had the same preceding trend, the same descending triangle, it just wasn't violated to the downside before making the biggest move up in GLD since 2009.

 Intraday there almost loos to be a bullish inverse H&S forming with the left shoulder, the had and FB now moving up off the right shoulder; if that were the case, the breakout would be at $27.25, which is also the area of the triangle's apex.


 The 2 min chart went negative on the open, FB followed that signal (2 min being an intraday signal) and put in a small relative positive divergence followed by a small leading positive divergence.

 FB 3 min intraday saw the same negative divergence on the open and a move above yesterday's closing highs.

 The 5 min chart doesn't show the negative divergence, it wasn't strong enough to make it there, suggesting it's simply an intraday move, other than a leading positive on June 6, the chart is for the most part in line with price recently.

 The 15 min (this is where FB gets interesting as the longer term timeframes are more important and represent a larger trend-in the past a 15 min divergence was more than enough to move a stock on its own), the 15 min is leading positive and was very positive yesterday as well

 The 30 min going negative on the 24th/25th, then positive at the 31st, remained in leading position and another positive at the 6th, but most importantly....

 The 60 min chart which has been quite positive in a short period of time, today it is adding to the leading positive divergence, all of that movement in the box is today alone!

For some potential stops, the 60 min Trend Channel has moved up (yesterday it was below $26, today it is at $26). I never put a stop at an obvious place including whole numbers like $26.

A little tighter stop on the 30 min is at $26.20, this will also lock in gains faster, but will allow for less consolidation.

I still like FB as a speculative long (as I view all longs to be speculative considering the primary trend) even right here.

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